Paul Kennedys arguments on the rise and fall of great powers Essay

In the world’s history, the face of the earth has witnessed power supremacy between various countries and states. All along from the Spanish rein in their days on the sun, the Britain, France and now the US. All this scenes on the globe have a significant impact on the relative powers on the either side. The outstanding issue is not the power but forces behind that power rise, sustainability and its fall. Therefore this essay shall examine the ways of measuring this power sustainability according to the Paul Kennedy’s perspective in his argument on the rise and fall of major world powers. Introduction  Professor Paul Kennedy argues about how predictable and determinable is the raising and declining of the major powers in his book entitled: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000. In this book he presents the parameters which are used to measure the prospects and indicators of rising and decline of world’s major power. Furthermore, arguments are presented together with empirical studies of the major world powers, which encompass both political and economical dimensions of the Great Powers. This studies rates and discusses the rise and their fall from 1500 to 1980. Additionally, apart from exclusively discussion their rise and fall, his argument goes beyond the prevalent conditions and projects the future of the US, Japan, China, European Economic Commission and USSR. The core of the Kennedy’s argument is that the strength of a power of a nation or a state can only be measured relative to the other existing powers . In this connection, the fundamental issue that he uses as a scale is the fact that major powers rising, falling and their sustainability entirely depend on the available resources and economic durability and military strength relative to its requirements for prospering. Therefore, the argument for measuring the decline or prosperity of a given world power is through military power and its inputs and the economic and productive power. The two measuring devices employed by Professor Paul Kennedy 20 year earlier are the central base for this essay paper. Through use of military and economic propensity this essay shall examine the major world powers their rise and decline. Also related to the Kennedy’s argument is the prediction of the decline of the USSR and US as a major world power or super power , while prediction of gradual but steady raise of china as a major power. The central thesis of Paul Kennedy is that the power of a state needs to be maintained and sustained. Therefore the more the power of a state increases, the more resources shall be needed to maintain. The maintenance of a power should be balance between both in military and economic power . But when more state resources are devoted towards maintaining military power in long term it weakens the power and directs it to the path of decline. While when productivity economy slightly overweighs military expenditure the power is stable and can be maintained. Therefore the key driver of the power of a state entirely relies on the economic component of the power. Thus the main argument is; power can only be maintained by a prudent balance between the creation of wealth and military expenditure. Therefore the essay shall closely look at this argument that emphasizes on the power measuring parameter using the balance between wealthy creation and military expenditure. In order to do this effectively the essay shall evaluate how reliable and valid is the argument basing on the major historical world powers; especially the Germany, France, US, Moguls of India, Ottoman Empire, USSR, China, Japan and Great Britain. Measures for rise and fall of a great power state The countries in this regard power can only be measured and gauged with each other only when their military mighty sustainability costs balances with their economic production or wealth creation through investments or production of gods and services. 0 years earlier Paul Kennedy researched, wrote and interpreted the major world power how they rose over the years into their day on sun and the dark side of their power into decline. Therefore at this point it is worthy to examine how relevant are the two measuring parameter and how realistic are they to today’s reality on our globe, traced from the past and extrapolated into the future. Economic and productive power The key driver of the power of a state entirely relies on the economic component of the power in terms of its productivity. This is because as the government running, planning and execution of the plans depends on the engine of the economy. Most evident is that, British financial strength was the single most decisive factor in its victories over France during the 19th century. Therefore in this argument Professor Kennedy argues that it is possible to detect the rise and fall of different powers in the world by looking at the economic indices. In this regard economic power dictates the power prosperity. For instance the economic dimension is important to maintain the military mighty. In this connection, economic production should overweigh or balance the expenditure to the military sector. For example Spain, Britain, France and Netherlands military expenditure overweighed their economic production that has lead to their declines since then. Addition to that, we can agree today that during the entire 19th to early 20th century the Great Britain was the fore front in the entire world as a great power. The reason for its being on the fore front was the fact that industrial revolution placed it on that position. This is can be empirically evident that Britain per capita grew from 10, 16, 25, 64, 87 and 100 in 1750, 1800, 1830, 1860, 1880, and 1900 respectively. At this time France which was a relative competitor for this great power had its per capita from 9, 9, 12, 20, 28 and 39 in 1750, 1800, 1830, 1860,1880 and 1900 respectively . Therefore gauging at these two difference in the production of the in terms of industrial per capita, it implies that the UK had an upper hand even in financing its major military operations than France therefore can maintain the slot of being major power on the globe . Another indicator that is used to measure the rising and declining power under the economic and productive power; is the relative share of the worlds manufacturing outputs. In this respect, great power states manufacturing output can really determine the peaks and troughs of power. For example UK’s output is1. 9 percent in 1750, then in 1860 it was at 19. 9 percent, and 22. 9 percent in the year 1880. While china’s starts at an index of 32. 8% in 1750 and declines to19. % in 1860, after the Taiping Rebellion and Opium Wars ; then declines further to 12. 5% in 1880. The two combinations give an insight of the power that is capable financially so that it can be able to run its functions effectively. In this light, statistics of war time indicates that during its reign Britain was capable to maintain its war expenditures effectively. Thus in 1688 to 1815 the total wartime expenses were ? 2,293,483,437 , Britain income was pitched at  Ã‚ £ 1,622,924,377. Thus it only had a balance of  £ 670,559,060. But from 1890s the US economy overtook that of Britain and Germany to become the world super power together with other political factors . Thirdly the measures can be in today’s economic environment through the use of the states share of the total world GDP which is a round $45 to $50 trillion. At this juncture Kennedy’s argument predicts the decline of the US as a world super power. Since the share of the US in the world GDP ever declining since 1945 when it over took from Britain. In fact China is a major threat to the US as a world great power. To this effect the statistics indicates that China’s total GDP will be higher than that of the US by 2025, if the trading systems are not interfered with by natural calamities or human caused activities. Military power Military power is necessary to safeguard the overall power and the economic power of the state. Military power is the symbol of real and hard power. All great powers that rose in the face of the earth had a relatively stronger military power that enabled the m defeat major battles and wars. For instance the Germany, France, Britain, Spain and Soviet Union . But that one does not exempt the central thesis of the discussion; power sustainability can only be achieved through a balance between the wealth creation and the military expenditure that do not over stretch the economy of the state. In this regard at the beginning of the 16th century, Spain was the worlds and European great power with excellent armed forces . This made it powerful. But the argument is the measure for this power sustainability; that makes it relative to either prevail or decline. Therefore fort the Spain’s case, this excellent army required sustenance from economic resources. Which were over spent on a higher scale from Spain’s mismanaged resources, deficit budgeting and inflation. Hence in the long run it declined as a major power. The French also saw the same way as Spain at end of the 17th. Whereby France mismanaged its economic resources that was largely used for supporting an increasingly expensive regular armed forces until the period of the American Revolutionary that led to the French Revolution making this expenditures too huge for the economy top support that ended in a bankruptcy ; hence its decline. Britain on the other hand had to have a loan to finance its military campaigns, making it use more of the resources than what it creates as economical input. On the other hand the on his prediction for decline of the US as a major world power in terms of it’s overstretch on the military expenditures, it is evident that US is spending too much on the military. For instance nuclear full-fleet carrier of the US navy that is 20 storey high, that displaces105, 000 tonnes of water. This total expenditure for construction is about $28 billion , which is greatest budget ever in the world’s history. In general, US defense budget only accounts for just over half of total defense expenditure in the world. This together with other reasons makes US ever crisis as a super power. Conclusion The argument of Kennedy Paul about the rise and fall of the world’s greatest powers over human history is to a great extend valid. However it is not 100% accurate and any where in this universe it can not happen. Basing on his central thesis of the argument that; the power measuring parameter using the balance between wealthy creation and military expenditure. The essay has explored these measuring devises used by professor Paul indeed there is some validity in this claims. For instance, china over currently has concentrated on the wealth creation by production and controlled minimal military expenditure: has seen to pose a threat to US supremacy. Therefore whenever the governance system fails to balance there scorecards between the economic output and inputs to sustain military force activities the decline shall be knocking at the door. Whereas the reverse is true.