A research proposal

Children always gesture while explaining what they have to answer, narrate or describe. Almost all the studies, which have been made on children gesture, concluded saying gesture is a vehicle through which children express their knowledge.When children are asked explain a concept they are acquiring, they will always gesture discordant, which means conveying one message in speech and another in gesture. These children are shown to be in a transitional state in the sense that they are particularly receptive to instruction- in fact, more receptive to instructions than the children who convey the same procedure in speech and gesture (1993).Although it is important to be able to describe the learner’s state before and after the task has been mastered, characterizing the process that bridges these two states is the key to understanding learning. Unfortunately, in many studies of learning in both adults and children, performance, procedures, and mental representation are described be fore and after learning.While little attention is paid to the transition between these states (1989). One potential source of information about unverbalized mental processes is the spontaneous gestures that accompany speech.Studies have also shown that child’s gestures can be used to predict child’s performance on a learning task. When a child produces gesture – speech mismatch on a given problem, that child by definition conveys deferent information in gesture and speech.Surprisingly the information child expresses in gesture in such mistakes is typically not ever conveyed in speech during that assessment period, even across a series of test problems(1995). This finding suggested that the child who produces mismatches posses at least some knowledge that he or she cannot verbalize but can only express it in gesture, that is, knowledge that is uniquely expressed in gesture.The studies concluded this assumption saying this concept necessarily rest on the assumptio n that the child’s gestures are an accurate reflection of what the child knows (1998). If the gestures are the accurate expression what the child knows the gestures will have a great deal to do with the source of the knowledge the children have. Studies have not discussed much about the source of knowledge child has really influencing the gestures the child make.Indeed, all of the gesture – speech mismatch studies reported have been based on the assumption that gesture is a vehicle through which children can express meaning. And the fact that these studies have yielded coherent results provides indirect evidence for this assumption (1998).The studies also undoubtedly state that gesture has the potential to offer a unique source of insight into the mind of a child. This proposed study is to seek empirical evidence to make sure that the source of knowledge a child has would always have an influence on the gestures the child make while expressing that knowledge. It is bec ause, one must assume that if gesture is the vehicle through which children can express meaning, gesture is the vehicle through which adults can transport knowledge to the children for comprehension.The speech – gesture mismatch children would make in the expression can be caused from the variations the child observes in the adults expressions. These variations in the adults gestures also cause the difference in the duration of this transition period. Children pay attention to information conveyed in gesture, the y learn from it. Children instructed in mathematics equivalent problems (e.g., 3 + 4 + 5 = _ + 5) are more likely to learn when the instruction includes speech and gesture than it includes only speech (2005).This experience beyond doubt proves that children pay attention to the gestures the see and grasp information from them. Gestures have an indexical function. This indexical function of the gestures is what particularly enabling the children to benefit from the ge stures and comprehend more. There can be deference in this indexical actions in gestures of different people in deferent cultures and different climatically and social conditions. Gesture thus serves the purpose of visual in a learning process.This study here experiment that Conditions under which indexical gestures convey lessons to the children by the adults has anything to do with the speech – gesture mismatch children produce in their expressions.   Participating in an interactive section the enhancement of comprehension is vital. Enhancing the comprehension will mean the duration of above said transition will be reduced. Helping children to be effective communicators.It will definitely be possible when the studies on the obvious reasons for the speech – gesture mismatch are dealt with. In order to make this study work the experiment should include narrations and description of intangible object with gestures.And concrete things and theories also can be framed to experimental questions. All three of this categories in two sets, one with gestures seek comprehension and answers from children of two age groups,   while other seek comprehension and answers from children of two age groups of the same participants, without gestures.

Rocky Balboa Inspiration

To the handful of heroes I so highly regard, to choose one is a difficult task. From creative fictional works, like Indiana Jones, to very impacting historical figures, like Theodore Roosevelt, Rocky Balboa is a notable fictional character influencing my character. He is an iconic American Hero that impacts people's lives. He Is a well- known for epitomizing the underdog story and Influencing the minds and hearts of many. The depth and reliability he hold true to his values make him a superior to other characters in fictional works.Rocky Balboa, a man of masculinity, Is hardhearted with a vulnerability that allows people to see his true self. Here Is a man of no worth who Is a victim of self-inflicted misfortune with nothing to his name, but a dream; a dream to make his life better. This feat Is not accomplished overnight, through determination, hard work, and perseverance, he Is able to make his dream a reality. HIS dream Is modest for It was to not become the best, but be able to a mount to the best. He is able to go the distance and amount to something creating a Journey all can relate to. Stallion creates a character that inspires and enables the dreams of there.He exhibits values that I want to emulate. His character is one that set an example for me. Overtime I watch a Rocky movie, he inspires me to be a better man. He is my inspiration for being a person that feels like they have no place in the world. His ability to go the distance set a precedence in my minds and heart. Rocky changed me into a better man. His actions spoke to me, making me want to go the distance. He gives me a reason to live, giving me hope. He aspires to make something of himself when he, of all people, is given a chance to make his dream a reality.What he stands for is what I too would like to stand for. He taught me an important life lesson that impacted me so much when he said, â€Å"Life anti all about sunshine and rainbows, it's a cruel and nasty place that will beat you to your knees and leave you there if you let it; But it isn't about how hard you hit, it is about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward† (Rocky Balboa). This quote carries meaning and resonates to me. He allows me to always move forward with life. Therefore making him an inspirational fictional character for all.

Middle Age and Renaissance Art

Gothic Art is art of the Middle Ages. Early Middle Age art is also known as the Dark ages (410 AD-ADDED). After the Dark ages came the Medieval era (1066-1485) Then on to the Renaissance era. In the Middle Ages the Roman Empire was spilt into two sections, the Eastern and the Western part of the Roman Empire. The Roman Empire fell, the Western part disintegrated, while the Eastern or Byzantium Empire stayed intact. The art reflects the differences between the development of Catholic Religion and the Byzantium Empire.Byzantium Art had characteristics of religious art, somber tones, flat, one dimensional, no shadows, narrow, and solemn faces. Medieval Gothic Art broke away from Byzantium Art and Romanesque styles. Changes included : Brighter colors, sculptures, metal work out of bronze, stained glass, use of shadows and light, use of symmetry, and depiction of animals and mythological scenes (middle-ages. Com, 2013). Ghetto did Bonnet's The Last Supper was a painting from this period. Renaissance Art began in Italy around the late 13th and early 14th entry and continued through the 17th century.Art from this period was mostly of religious nature. It was described as a period of rebirth. This was a time of greater prosperity and new technologies. There were three major phases of Renaissance Art, Early, High, and Late. In these phases inspiration came from antiquity, creating realistic figures that had portrayed personality and behavior (history. Com, 2013). Focus was on the laws of proportion for architecture, human body, and space. Experimentation with oil based paints allowed the artist to change his art as he shed for months as it didn't dry fast.Leonardo dad Vine's The Last Supper was a famous painting from this opened. ART 2 The Last Supper by Ghetto did Bonded and Leonardo dad Vinci both were based on the New Testament. In the Last Supper by Ghetto did Bonded, he did not attempt to imitate reality; there is no depth, and no light source. The goal was to teac h the Christian faith. The Last Supper by Leonardo dad Vinci was the first to depict reality, with each person displaying an emotion. This is what made his work remarkable (history. Mom, 2013). Both Middle Age art and Renaissance art had religion as common ground. The Middle Ages was a separation of the Western and Eastern Roman Empire. It reflected the difference between the development of the Catholic religion in the west and Byzantium Empire. Renaissance art was mostly religious stemming from the end of the Middle Ages. Renaissance art was more visually accurate and secular. It had more realistic backgrounds that indicated realism, creativity and appreciation of physical nature.The purpose was decoration and self-expression, not like the middle ages. By Renaissance art introducing realism, it allowed the common person to enjoy tales, and this tradition continues in today's society. As the Renaissance art went out, mannerism came in. It was a different kind of art. It showed more clashing colors, disquieting figures, emotion, and bizarre themes that combined classicism, Christianity, and mythology (about. Com, 2013)

Human resource management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Human resource management - Essay Example However, in the modern sense, this definition does not hold valid any more. Significant competitive pressures, advancements in technology, privatizations and mergers have forced companies to continually enhance their systems and human resource skills. As a result, a â€Å"secure† job one day would not be considered secure the next day. Additionally, increased requirements of productivity and new conditions make jobs redundant while creating space for new jobs with new or enhanced skill sets. J.D. Wallance has highlighted these very factors and offered a solution that remains beyond the realm of a single job position. He has emphasized that the initiative for retraining for career protection lies with the individual and not with the company this person works for as â€Å"very few companies† focus on â€Å"necessary training† for employees. In his assessment, in the face of fast paced changes in work environments, employees have a choice between â€Å"being left behind† by stagnating their knowledge or open up new options for themselves in the job market by having more current skill sets. It is not always possible to fully predict whether a certain newly acquired skill would result in career advancement and success or not. For example, back when Internet was still not widely available in the commercial domain, fully assessing its impact on the global economy was not easy. Training in Internet technologies at that time could be termed a calculated guess which paid off in the long run. Extending the same example, anyone restricting oneself to HTML technology may have limited the options for growth. Newer technologies on the horizon, still untested and many far different from each other, could still provide a more certain chance of success compared with doing nothing. The subjectivity mentioned earlier is introduced by potential failure as in the example in the text. However, one must first analyze the

Constitutional Government Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Constitutional Government - Essay Example For example, federalism allows the national and local government to come together and formulate polices that may be used to regulate how the activities will be executed. However, during the policy making process the level of power and control between the national and local government is not equal, the national government may have more scope to exercise its authority and powers over the national government. A good example of a country that employs corporative federalism is the United States. The theory of federalism emerged after the Second World War and great depression that substantially affected the United State economy and the world at large (Schütze, 2009). The theory of cooperative federalism utilizes a comparison of the marble cake whereby, there is overlapping of responsibilities between the federal government and the state government. One of the major areas where there are such overlapping is on the area like education, security, finance to mention just but a few. For example, the state/local government was give given the mandate to determine the level of qualification among teachers as well as set standards for learners among different students. Any interference by the federal government on education affairs was faced with a lot of criticism by the affected parties. Under the theory of cooperative federalism the state had the powers and authority to supply funds to support education and security at the local level but was not suppose to interfere with administrative duties/responsibilities (Schütze, 2009). . On the contrary, the theory of dual federalism was established via the tenth constitutional amendment. The theory entails a system of governance where the national government is concern with foreign affairs while the state government are directly involved in managing and ruling citizens. Unlike cooperative federalism where authority and powers between the state and federal government are not

Chose one of the topics from the attachments Essay

Chose one of the topics from the attachments - Essay Example Of course, one needs to be apprised of any eminent negative effects that these social networking sites present to current and potential users. In this regard, the essay hereby aims to persuade the readers that using a social networking Web site has both positive and negative effects on relationships that should be evaluated to increase awareness on the most appropriate course of action regarding its continued use. Solis (2011) has recognized the significant and crucial impact that social media has impacted on today’s generation. As emphasized, â€Å"social media is pervasive and it is transforming how people find and share information and how they connect and collaborate with one another† (Solis, 2011, par. 1). The article written by Horn (2011) revealed that â€Å"social media is one of the most popular and fastest growing mobile activities, reaching nearly one third of all U.S. mobile users† (Horn, 2011, par. 4). The Technolog article, on the other hand, entitled â€Å"Older adults are flocking to social networks† has disclosed that â€Å"social networking use by Internet users ages 50 and older nearly doubled in the past year, going from 22 percent in April 2009 to 42 percent in May 2010† (Technolog, 2010, par. 1). These statistics prove that social networking in an increasingly popular trend that has enticed various users from a wide range of age groups. The reasons why social networks have been seen as beneficial to users are as follows: (1) easy access to information on general issues, social relationships and other current events; (2) cheap and convenient as current and updated information are readily available 24/7; (3) â€Å"social media makes you travel the world without even leaving your chair†¦indicating that no matter what kind of business it is, the use of social media is essential in order to gravitate products to the

Management of Working Capital Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Management of Working Capital - Essay Example A discussion relating to working capital cycle, methods of managing working capital, working capital management in UK companies and suggestions for improvement has been presented below. The working capital of the business is defined as the net of current assets over current liabilities. It is an important liquidity measure of the firm. The current assets include not only cash, receivables but also inventories as it can be easily liquidated whereas the current liabilities include short term loans and creditors (University of California, n.d.). A business with scarce working capital faces difficulty in meeting its short term obligations from the available cash resources if there is a sudden or continuous fall in sales. Therefore, it is important to maintain an optimum amount of working capital in the business and it must be carefully monitored by the managers (Nix & McFetridge, n.d.). Working capital forms an important part of a firm’s operations. Maintaining an ideal level of inventory ensures that the firm does not have to face the problem of material deficit in meeting its production targets. Similarly the receivables figure in the balance sheet indicates the willingness of the firm to extend goods on credit. As credit sale is risky the management must be careful in the choice of debtors. Working capital consists of current assets like cash, inventory and current liability like creditors and short term loans. The pattern of all the above components of working capital varies with the business cycle. When there is a fall in the market demand there is a rise in the stock of finished goods. Later when this fall in demand takes the form of recession the firm lowers the stock of inventories, delays the payment of loans and accelerates the realization of receivables. This implies that with the worsening of the recession there is a decrease in the working capital. Therefore the efficient management of working

Assessment #2 - Experiential Analysis Assignment

Assessment #2 - Experiential Analysis - Assignment Example r daily wagon position; Caren Oshome is responsible for Wagon Turn Around times; Eric Njoroge is responsible for Locomotive & Transit times; and I, Samuel, is responsible for locomotive turnaround times at key depots/yards. This company experiences cultural diversity and, therefore, intercultural accommodation among different groups is highly encouraged. Our group constitutes varying cultural backgrounds and each of us endeavors to appreciate the culture of each other in order to improve service delivery. We joined the company at a time during which mutual understanding was quite a challenge. We decided to embrace free communication which not only bonded and gave us a basis for a common identity, but also created a context for interaction and negotiation amongst us. As a consequence of this communication, we have created a set of shared experiences and many ways of talking about issues affecting us at work. To this end, we have inculcated our own culture/style of doing certain things. Conforming to such criteria is helping us to attain our objectives. This is dictated by our responsibilities and obligations and, hence, fosters a harmonious functioning among group members. Secondly, it enhances relationships and group cohesion from within since it outlines the kind of attitudes expected of us. More often than not, this facilitates us in a substantial way to resolve conflict. Thirdly, it assists to gain a better understanding of our job experiences by prescribing our ethical attitudes as well as the roles. After we adopted similar values and behaviors, we started experiencing a sense of unity and belongingness; stability as conflicts are resolved and harmony is maintained; satisfaction and group cohesion; and improved internal dynamism as a result of the influence of a stronger internal cohesion. Quite a lot of facts have been brought on board to shed some light on how culture affects interpersonal communication within a group. To complement past emphasis on

How to Make Almost Anything Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

How to Make Almost Anything - Essay Example It has also provided industrial and business policy makers a specific structure for the ongoing debate and knowledge sharing process of â€Å"Digital fabrication†. Digital Fabrication is very different from traditional manufacturing method because it integrates the computer-assisted designs with the traditional manufacturing process. Digital Fabrication will have a massive impact on automobiles, consumer products, life sciences and the entire manufacturing sector because it will able to integrate all the aspects of science and technology in one single dimension unlike the traditional method of manufacturing tools and technology. (Easton, 2008) The digital fabrication indeed presents a digital revolution. Digital fabrication will allow future 3-D printers to build complete functional systems with no needs for parts to be assembled. The potential of the digital fabrication booming is undoubtedly huge. One of the most important reasons why it will be successful in the future is because it will allow for the development of low-cost, domestically produced manufacturing facilities, which are also capable of building a huge range of highly advanced products. (Hopkinson & Dickens, 2006) Digital fabrication brings mobility and flexibility to the conventional method of fabrication where materials and tools were used manually in a cumbersome manner and it took a huge amount of time. Although digital fabrication draws on the same thoughts and insights that had led to the idea of communication and computation, however it is much quicker and sharper than the conventional approach. Digital fabrication allows people to design products wherever needed to be produced. This method will challenge traditional business models of business, arts, medicine and education. Not only that, but it will revolutionize the concept of science and technology to a huge extent. According to Stephens

Video game console Essay Example for Free

Video game console Essay The Xbox 360 is the second video game console produced by Microsoft, and the successor to the Xbox. The Xbox 360 competes with Sonys PlayStation 3 and Nintendos Wii as part of the seventh generation of video game consoles. We plan to launch a high-quality, it is slimmer than the previous Xbox 360 model and features integrated 802. 11 b/g/n Wi-Fi, TOSLINK S/PDIF optical audio output, a 250 GB hard drive, 5 USB 2. 0 ports (compared to the 3 from older versions) and a special AUX port. The overall goal of xbox 360 marketing program is to create enhanced public awareness through a comprehensive marketing campaign. we would like to see a 15 percent increase in the segment market of brand awareness. The Xbox 360 is very user friendly,convenience with Wi-Fi Connection, good customer services and advices, free download video game trailers. Additonal, We are planning to provide a prefect customer services system. Building brand awareness among affluent consumers. Using low price to penetration in the market segmentation. Also We will use pull strategy to capture potential consumer and use push strategy to reach with good relationship with each media channel. Internal situation Our company mission is reach a brand awarness of 60% up to 75% in the cosumer market. We will build up a good communication with our partner, using promtion discount offer to wholesaler and retailer, we will provide more information of our new products to them. External situation When economic recovery, it will make people have more purchase power to buy their needs. Highly income will make people to increae their enterainment with standard of living. Xbox360 compete with others manufacture such as PS3, Wii in the segment market. SWOT Analysis of Xbox360 Xbox360 is very powerful strengths such as Kinect (originally known by the code name Project Natal)is a controller-free gaming and entertainment experience for the Xbox 360 video game platform. The users to control and interact with the Xbox 360 without the need to touch a game controller through a natural user interface using gestures, spoken commands or presented objects and images. The project is aimed at broadening the Xbox 360s audience beyond its typical gamer base. The Xbox360 is using HD Technology which makes a beautiful image and with visual expression. The powerful of Xbo360 is easily compat wiht previous Xbox games, it makes convenience who wants to play a previous games. Our pice is lower than PS3, Launch of Xbox 360 250 GB $299. 99 and The price of PS3 each unit cost around $400 to manufacture by August 2009 with 160GB. Our Weakness is the lack of Microsoft Xbox 360 Strength: †¢ Integration of next generation DVD players i. e. HD technology †¢ Backward compatibility with previous Xbox games †¢ Online product – the first of its kind †¢ Lower price than most comparable competitor PS3 †¢ The new product of kinect Weakness: †¢ Expensive hardware and games †¢ Production flows †¢ Direct competition with Nintendo because of equally large customer base Opportunity †¢ Penetration of new markets in ME †¢ Penetration of untouched markets by means of bundling †¢ Partnership with Hollywood studios Threat †¢ Lower cost competitor i.e. Nintendo †¢ Anti trust issues in Europe †¢ Hardware complication Competition Sony Play Station. 3 Strength: †¢ Integration of next generation DVD players †¢ Backward compatibility with previous PS2 †¢ Mostly Free Online product †¢ Recent decline in profits Weakness: †¢ Expensive hardware and games Opportunity †¢ Great product lunch covering global spectrum. †¢ Penetration of new markets in ME †¢ Penetration of untouched markets by means of bundling †¢ Partnership with Hollywood studios Threat †¢ Lower cost competitor i. e. Nintendo. †¢ Delays in production †¢ Constant strategy change Nintendo Wii Strength: †¢ Uniqueness of hardware motion detection †¢ Low cost hardware and software †¢ Intuitive usage Weakness: †¢ Joystick liability †¢ Limited selection of software Opportunity †¢ Penetration of new markets in ME / Europe / Asia †¢ Marketing to novice gamers including seniors and adults Threat †¢ Loss of potential customer because of lack of software selection and sophistication of games. †¢ Software developers abandon game development because of lack of adequate profits.

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Engineering Essay

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Engineering Essay Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are a class of device which make conversion of electrochemical fuel to electricity with negligible pollution[1]. SOFCs have two major configurations: flat planar and tubular and the SOFCs system consists of a stack that is made of many unit cells. Each unit cell is composed of two porous electrodes, a solid ceramic electrolyte and interconnects. Unlike other fuel cells, the SOFCs conduct oxygen ions from the cathode to the anode through the electrolyte, and hydrogen or carbon monoxide reacts with the oxygen ions in the anode[2]. The materials of anode and cathode have different requirements; the anode should withstand a very reducing high temperature environment whilst the cathode has to survive a very oxidising high temperature environment[3]. Among all the important fuel cells under development, the solid oxide fuel cells operate at the highest operating temperature, typically between 600 and 1000à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™[4]. So the SOFCs has also been called the third-generation fuel cell technology because it was expected to be put into application widely after the commercialisation of Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells (PAFCs) (the first generation) and Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFCs) (the second generation)[2]. The solid oxide fuel cell is composed of all solid components with the electrolyte acting as an oxide ion conductor and operating at high temperature (~1000à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™) in order to ensure adequate ionic and electronic conductivity for the cell components[5]. 1.1.1 SOFC Advantages and Disadvantages SOFCs have a number of advantages due to their solid materials and high operating temperature. Since all the components are solid, as a result, there is no need for electrolyte loss maintenance and also electrode corrosion is eliminated[6]. Since SOFCs are operated at high temperature, expensive catalysts such as platinum or ruthenium are totally avoided[2, 6]. Also because of high-temperature operation, the SOFC has a better ability to tolerate the presence of impurities as a result of life increasing[6]. Costs are reduced for internal reforming of natural gas[6]. Due to high-quality waste heat for cogeneration applications and low activation losses, the efficiency for electricity production is greater than 50 ¹Ã‚ ªand even possible to reach 65 ¹Ã‚ ª[2, 6]. Releasing negligible pollution is also a commendable reason why SOFCs are popular today[5]. However, there are also some disadvantages in existence for deteriorating the performance of SOFCs. SOFCs operate high temperature, so the materials used as components are thermally challenged[5]. The relatively high cost and complex fabrication are also significant problems that need to be solved[6]. 1.1.2 SOFC Applications Due to the advantages mentioned above, SOFCs are being considered for a wide range of applications, such as working as power systems for trains, ships and vehicles; supplying electrical power for residential or industrial utility[2, 7]. 1.1.3 SOFC Components and Configurations A SOFC system is composed of fuel cell stacks, which consist of many unit cells. There are two major configurations, tubular and planar, being pursued, described generally as follows. Tubular unit cell is shown in Figure 1[8, 9]. The schematic illustrates the corresponding current flow direction and components. According to X. Li[2], due to easy stacking consideration, recently more and more tubular cells have the structure of cathode inside and anode outside the electrolyte layer. The planar unit cell has a flat structure with a bipolar arrangement, as shown in Figure 2[10]. Seung-Bok Lee at el.[11] reported that since the more effective current collection by planner interconnects, planar SOFCs have superiority in power density. On the contrary, the thermal and mechanical properties of tubular SOFCs are better than that of planner SOFCs. Table 1[2] lists a comparison of the two different SOFC cell configurations Table 1 A comparison of the two different SOFC cell configurations[2] Advantage Disadvantage Ease of manufacturing Edge current collection Tubular No need for gas-tight cell sealing Low-power density Less thermal cracking due to thermal expansion mismatch High materials cost Lower fabrication cost High temperature gas-tight sealing Planar Ease in flow arrangement High assembly effort and cost Higher power density Stricter requirement on thermal expansion match An SOFC stack consist of many unit cells, which are connected by interconnects. Figure 3[12] illustrates image of planar SOFC stack. 1.1.3.1 Cathode The typical material for the cathode is strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La1-xSrxMnO3, x=0.10-0.15), because of its good electrochemical activity for oxygen reduction, high electronic conductivity, good stability[2, 4].Other materials, like platinum and other noble metals have also been considered as candidates of the SOFC cathode due to the highly oxidising environment. However, considering the high cost of platinum, it is not best choice to use this metal as the cathode. 1.1.3.2 Anode Though as for the cathode, precious metals like platinum can be used for the SOFC anode, the most widely used material is a nickel-zirconia cermet, i.e. a mixture of nickel and yttria-stabilised zirconia (YSZ) skeleton[2]. About 20 ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ¦-40 ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ porosity in the anode structure is good for mass transport of reactant and product gases[1, 2]. Nickel plays the role as the electrocatalyst for anode reaction and also can conduct the electrons produced at the anode whilst the yttria-stabilised zirconia is used for conducting oxygen ions[2]. 1.1.3.3 Electrolyte There are a number of materials that can be used for the SOFC electrolyte. Among them, yttria stabilised zirconia (YSZ), i.e. zirconia doped with around 8 mol ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ yttria and gadolinia-doped ceria (GDC) is the most widely used materials suitable for the SOFC electrolyte. GDC has very good ionic conductivity, but it also shows a high electronic conductivity[5]. Compared with GDC, YSZ is stable in either reducing or oxidising environments and has a good conductivity to transmit ions, especially at sufficiently high temperature. But unlike GDC, YSZ shows little or no capability to conduct electrons. Each time two yttria ions (Y3+) replace two zirconia ions (Zr4+) in the zirconia crystal lattice, three oxide ions (O2-) replace four O2- ions, which make one O2- site become vacant, as shown in Figure 4[5]. The vacancies are determined by the amount of yttria doped. So it seems superficially that the more yttria doped, the better the conductivity. But there is an upper limit for the amount of doped yttria, which is shown in Figure 5[5]. The peak conductivity appears at yttria concentration of 6% to 8 mol%. Very dense YSZ has a very low gas permeability, which does not allow the reactant gases to mix. However, since YSZ has a low ionic conductivity, in order to ensure the ohmic loss and match with other components, it has to be made about 20-50 ÃŽÂ ¼m thick [1, 2]. 1.1.3.4 Interconnects Interconnects are used to connect the neighbouring cells. Materials which act as interconnect must have properties of high electronic conductivity[1]. Ceramics are usually used for the interconnect since the operating temperature is around 1000à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™. Mg-doped lanthanum chromite, LaCr1-xMgxO3 (x = 0.02-0.01) shows advantages because its electronic conductivity typically increases with temperature[2]. However, although noble metals have good electronic conductivity, their high price limits their becoming a candidate for the interconnect[ 2, 4]. 1.1.5 Electrochemical Conversion The air is carried to the cathode and the oxygen reacts with electrons from the external circuit yielding oxide ions[2, 4]: Cathode: O2 + 2e- à ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ O2- (1) The electrolyte does not permit the oxygen pass through it, but the oxide ions migrate from the electrolyte to the anode. At the anode hydrogen or carbon monoxide reacts with oxygen ions to produce water or carbon dioxide[2, 4]: Anode: H2 +O2- à ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ H2O + 2e- (2) CO + O2- à ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ CO2 + 2e- (3) This releases electrons to move through the external circuit to the cathode, thus generating an electric current. So the overall cell reaction occurring is[2, 4]: H2 + O2 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ H2O +Waste Heat + Electric Energy (4) CO + O2 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ CO2 +Waste Heat + Electric Energy (5) The electrochemical conversion is shown in Figure 6[13]. 1.2 Electrolyte Materials 1.2.1 Zirconia Zirconia is a white ceramic, with the properties of high temperature, wear and corrosion resistance, high melting point and low coefficient of thermal expansion. Historically, the application of zirconia has been in refractory and ceramic paints[2]. However, with the development of advanced technologies, due to its stabilised and excellent properties mentioned above, it can be used as electrical conductivity material in the solid oxide fuel cells, wear parts and sensors. Zirconia can exist in three different crystal structures: monoclinic, tetragonal and cubic. At room temperature, it naturally exists as the form of the monoclinic crystalline structure. When the temperature reaches around 1100à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™, the crystal form changes to tetragonal, and then to cubic at about 2370à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™[14]. Pure zirconia is never used because of its unstable properties, so many dopants are added to stabilise the higher temperature forms and hence avoid the damaging tetragonal to monoclinic transformation, e.g. MgO, CaO, Ce2O3, and Y2O3. Of these, yttria is the most common dopant, yielding yttria stabilised zirconia (YSZ). 1.2.2 Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ) and the Effect of Different Yttria Contents YSZ is considered to be an important electrolyte material for solid oxide fuel cells. The proportion of yttria in YSZ is still under research, but is often around 8 mol%. This yields a cubic fluorite-structure YSZ, which displays good thermal stability, good ionic conductivity at high temperature and a thermal expansion compatibility with electrode materials[15]. However, it is mechanically weak as a result of the high fraction of vacancies present in the structure. Different amount of yttria in zirconia has different effect on the properties of YSZ, including ionic conductivity, toughness, fracture strength etc[16]. 8 mol% yttria stabilised zirconia (8YSZ) has a cubic structure with properties of high ionic conductivity, good chemical stability but its low mechanical strength, limits the fabrication[17, 18]. However, for 3-7 mol% Y2O3, both cubic and tetragonal phases exist in the microstructure. Table 2[19] lists comparison of phases for different yttria concentration in zirconia. Table 2 Phase variation for different concentration of yttria in zirconia[19] %Y phase 2YSZ Tetragonal with some monoclinic 3YSZ Pure tetragonal 4.5YSZ Cubic and tetragonal 6YSZ and higher cubic If the YSZ has a great volume fraction of metastable tetragonal phase, which will provide good mechanical properties (strength and toughness) to the ceramic[16]. For example, 3 mol% yttria stabilised zirconia (3YSZ) has an excellent mechanical properties of high flexural strength and good fracture toughness. M. Ghatee et al.[16] also demonstrated that 3YSZ shows higher electrical conductivity than 8YSZ at T550 °C. That is because the activation energy of electrical conductivity for 3YSZ is lower than 8YSZ at all temperatures. And the strength of the material is determined by grain size and flaw size[16]. 1.2.3 Nanostructured Zirconia Nanostructured ceramics are expected the average particle size is less than 20nm[20]. And recently, nanotechnology have drawn much attention because of the good mechanical properties, i.e. increasing of hardness, strength, of the materials in nano-size. It is reported that the electrical conductivity of nanostructured YSZ is about 2-3 orders of the magnitude larger than that of microcrystalline YSZ[15]. Since nanostructured YSZ has many advantages, the development of nanocrystalline YSZ electrolyte grows rapidly. Y. Chen et al.[15], has synthesised nanocrystalline YSZ electrolyte via the plasma spray technique. 1.3 Characterisation of YSZ 1.3.1 Ionic Conductivity Conductivity is a measurement of whether charges transport well or not. Ionic conductivity is derived from  ion mobility rate, which is determined by carrier concentration c and carrier mobility u, which is shown in Equation 1 [5]. (1) [5] where is the charge number of the carrier, is Faradays constant. 1.3.1.1 AC Impedance Spectroscopy Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a widely used technique for differentiating different losses, i.e. anode activation losses, ohmic losses and cathode activation losses. Impedance, Z, a judgement of the capacity of a system to resist current flow relates to variation of time and frequency. It is given by the following Equation 2[5]: Z = (2) [5] Where: V(t) is time-dependent voltage = V0 cos() i(t) is time-dependent current = i0 cos() V0 and i0 are the amplitudes of voltage and current is radial frequency is phase shift It often uses sinusoidal voltage perturbation, V = V0cos(), dominating responded current, i = i0cos(), to measure impedance. So according to Equation 2, impedance Z is written by Equation 3[5]: Z = = Z0 (3)[5] Ionic conductivity is often investigated by impedance spectroscopy. Temperature and frequency are important factors which should be controlled accurately[21]. Measurements are often processed using platinum electrodes, in air. The YSZ electrolytes are coated with platinum paste on both sides. Two platinum wires which adhere to each side of the YSZ electrolyte were connected to the frequency response analyser. And the measurements are carried out under the temperature range of 200-1000 °C[21, 22]. 1.3.1.2 4-Probe Method 4-point probe method is used to measure the electrical impedance of YSZ. The configuration of the 4-point probe shown in Figure 7[23], is composed of four independent electrical terminals, the two probe (A and B) are used to provide current whilst the potential drop is measured by the inner terminals (C and D)[23, 24]. Figure 7 Principle of 4-point probe technique[23] And the face contact should be ensured when the measurement was made[25]. According to H. Kokabi[23], before measurement, the following two assumptions must be processed: The area of measurement is uniform; The diameter of the contact point is far less than the distance between two probes. 1.3.1.3 Sintered Density and Grain Size Effect on Ionic Conductivity According to X.J. Chen et al.[21], ionic conductivity can be divided to two parts: intragranular conductivity and intergranular conductivity. The former one is related to density, while the later one depends on the grain size and grain boundary. Intragranular conductivity increases with increasing density, and intergranular conductivity increases with the sintering temperature till 1350à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã†â€™, then drop down[21]. It is reported that high densities and small grain sizes can improve the electrical and mechanical properties of YSZ[26]. In the case of the porosity, >10%, can has great reduction for conductivity because the pores hinder the conduction way between grains[26]. On the contrary, the fully dense YSZ has a maximum conductivity. Han et al.[27] said that the grain boundary motion induces grain growth, which is driven by two processes: grain boundary diffusion and grain boundary migration. They both make densification increase, but the latter one gives rapid grain growth[22]. So if dense sintering with little grain growth needs to be achieved, hindering grain boundary migration, whilst keeping grain boundary diffusion active, is a good method. The activation energy for grain boundary migration, which is the least energy to ensure migration occurring, is higher than that for grain boundary diffusion. So as D. Mà ¦land[22] suggests, it is better keeping the sintering temperature to no more than 1300 °C, which means that grain boundary migration is inhibited, but grain boundary diffusion is active.

Challenges Faced By Women In Politics Sociology Essay

Challenges Faced By Women In Politics Sociology Essay Though out history there have always been groups of people who do not feel that they are being adequately represented in modern governments, and women are one of them. Many women have experienced issues regarding whether or not their voices and opinions being heard and truly acted upon by people in political offices. As modern society continues to develop, things are beginning to become more apparent regarding the influence and ideas women have to offer in society and especially politics. Many women feel that there are not enough legislative powers adequately representing them and their voices. Men, because of their gender majority in politics, have the primary decision making when it comes to passing laws, which possibly affects more lives than they realize. There becomes a question if their views and decisions are based on their thoughts and opinions or those of whom they are supposed to be representing. When discussing such sensitive issues as abortion, which clearly relates to de cisions that should also be made by women because of their immediate relation to the subject have minimal say if any because of the unequal representation. Even though America chooses to encourage other countries to build themselves around American values, America herself seems to be falling behind the times. Yet in this male controlled political system that America has chosen to adopt, there seems to be very little change in the ability to sufficiently represent women. This problem can be resolved through more women becoming involved in the political process. Do women have a chance to overcome being head in charge. It has been said during the time when men were the bread maker and women were to be the homemakers. Women have been trying to wear the pants for centuries, whether it is as successful, career or in politics. It has always been debate about whether or not women are capable of succeeding in doing jobs that men have been doing for quite some time. There are many women now in the work force doing jobs that at one time were considered male only types of careers, jobs such as: police officers, fireman, and construction workers, even in politics. Hilary Clinton, who ran for the President of the United States, is a perfect example of modern women in the political arena. Even though she did not win the presidential race she still made her way to the White House; she is now the United States Secretary of State. Many people throughout the United States feel that she will do well with this position. My question is: What makes it hard for w omen to get the qualifying job that men hold and why is there a difference in the pay. Can a woman do the job better and get the job done equally? These are questions that many people in todays society feel need to be answered. Equality in the work place has been an issue for as long as men and women have worked together. Men and women work equally hard and get just as much accomplished as the other. Since the work is equal, the pay should be equal as well. It is seen by many that companies in the United States should be required to pay all employees equally and fairly. Obviously, pay should depend on position. If a woman works as a receptionist, she should not expect the same pay as a man in charge of system security. However, if a man and woman are in the same position, they should be paid the same. There are some jobs that women do better than men and vice versa. Companies need to realize that men and women work equally hard for their money. Often times, women work harder just to prove their equality. Instead of looking at gender, companies should look only at qualifications and how well the employee does the job. Women now are beginning to become corporate executives in businesses, and popular in the fi eld of medicine and law. Women have tried hard to push themselves forward in society to create a balanced and harmonious economy and so far it has been successful. Barriers of all kinds have been broken, well, all except a few, mainly in politics. Politicsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦when one stops and thinks of the word politics what naturally comes to mind? Our founding fathers, Presidents George Washington, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson; the popular political figures of today, President Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Al Gore; and now we can think of Hilary Clinton. Is society to blame for this misconception that women do not hold important roles in government and participate in making important decisions for our country? Not really, people just dont hear or read about women in politics as often as they do about men. As most people learn throughout elementary and junior high or middle school, our nation first formed government in 1776 when Thomas Jefferson first drafted our constitution. During this time women did not have a role in government, nor would they for the next one hundred and eight years, until a woman would try to run for office. In 1884, Belva Ann Lockwood the first woman to try a case before the United States Supreme C ourt ran for Presidency (Arenofsky 14). Well, to no surprise she lost, but her groundbreaking campaign made it possible and easier for Jeannette Rankin, thirty-three years later, to run and become elected to Congress for the state of Montana. However, even with this groundbreaking experience, women were still looked down upon for their lack of experience. It wasnt until 1920 when womens suffrage ended and the nineteenth amendment to the constitution, granting women the right to vote, and those women were formally introduced into politics. However, even with voting privileges, women were still looked at as weak feeble creatures. The lack of confidence and the inability to be seen as strong-minded females who were not afraid to voice their opinion hurt the female gender immensely. It wasnt until Eleanor Roosevelt, wife of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, crisscrossed the country speaking about social problems and serving as the quintessential role model for the politically active fem ale that women began to witness how to present themselves with confidence (Arenofsky 14). Finally, with womens confidence on the rise and their new understanding and attitudes toward government, women were starting to attain a higher status in the political arena. The big break for women came from the decision by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who in 1933 appointed Frances Perkins to the cabinet as Secretary of labor (Gurirab, T., Cayetano, P. (2010). However, in some magical, mysterious way, women are managing themselves quite nicely. Lets face it, there are far more white-collared, wealthy men in the United States, and in the world for that matter, than there are women. Even with women having highly paid corporate executive jobs, women still make far less than that of their male counterparts. For women, this is one of the major issues as to why government is lacking female participation. The most valid explanation for this problem is that the government controls the financial gains of women to limit their power. Looking at the facts, women make up fifty-two percent of our nations population, strange how such a big percentage of population has little representation. The thought of a government developed by males and dominated by females just does not sit well with the vast majority of higher male authority. Therefore, in order to make sure that women do not dominate, without being boldly direct about it, income levels are tampere d with. It may sound bizarre, but in Lyn Kathlenes Studying the New Voice of Women in Politics, she gives some very valid evidence that shows how women are paid in comparison to men in the same high white-collared jobs. The results are quite shocking. Kathlene shows that women are out-paid by men by nearly forty-percent for the same amount of work and jobs! The responsibilities of taking care of their home and loved ones and the lack of funds, the fight for womens dominance in government will never prevail. Does this mean Americans should just sit back and forget about the women before them who fought hard for their right to vote, to be heard, and have equality in government? Social class, status, and power are predetermined by ones gender. Within todays patriarchal society, men simply possess greater power than women, and enjoy greater access to what is valued by the social group. (Gurirab, T., Cayetano, P. (2010). Patriarchal thought produces male dominance, and authority within multiple areas, including politics. Throughout history, governments have designed laws to maintain such divisions of power, resulting in the oppression of women. Patriarchal power relations construct sexual differences as political differences by giving legal form to the belief that women, because of their sex, are fit only to serve as wives and mothers. (Gurirab, T., Cayetano, P. (2010). One must question how women can achieve greater influence within the male political arena if they are not viewed as equal? How are determined women attempting to change their position within society, regarding politics? Multiple changes have been made throughout history regarding the place of women in society, but are they leading towards equality? The main goal of the womens movement was basic citizenship rights for women. For decades, many of the first womens groups strived for their civil and political rights as women. Their central focus was the right to vote, and the right to run for office. The purpose was to claim a role in democratic politics. Many believed that in order to attain political goals, the right to vote was vital. Women assumed that once the right to vote was granted, equality in the eyes of males was soon to follow, along with their new influence within politics. Decades full of protests for womens rights created several political gains, as well as improvements in their status; however, inequality remained. Womens beliefs that political rights would lead to equal opportunity, were overshadowed by the reality that their inequality resulted in their lack of influence within politics. Multiple policies and laws may have been created or changed in an attempt to improve womens role in society, but economic dependence, and physical reliance on men continued as issues. Women remained underrepresented within politics, holding fewer than twenty percent of federal, and provincial elected offices in the United States. Eliminating women from political positions hindered their ability to become a valid influence within the political arena. Unequal pay, workplace harassment, and discrimination continued to plague women in the work force. Many believe that the variance between wages is due to the fact that forty-one percent of women are employed in part-tim e or temporary positions; however, those employed in full-time positions only earn seventy-three percent of what male employees make. Women occupy only twenty-two percent of the countrys highest paying jobs, but hold sixty-eight percent of the lowest paying jobs. With the lack of women in high profile positions, and the belief that women are not as valuable as men, they continue to provide no bearing on the political aspects of society. Women continue to receive less in our patriarchal society. Women have less political power, fewer economic resources, less security, and lower status that do men. (Gurirab, T., Cayetano, P. (2010). This continues regardless of decades dedicated to movements for womens rights, and lobbying for policies designed to alter womens status in society. For those women who are poor, immigrant, Native, or disabled, they find themselves even more inferior than other women. Therefore, the question remains, are women equal? Simply stated, they are not equal. Women continue to fight for liberal democratic political power. Their gender continues to play a role in how society will view them, as well as their position. For centuries, power has been allotted to men, which continues to this day. Few women possess great political power due to the difficulties of obtaining customary equality within society. In a world where men rule, how is a woman able to gain great authority, and step into the political spot light? In a society where women are viewed as insignificant, how are they to influence political decision makers? The law has granted women a voice within politics; however, it remains weak and inaudible. In order for women to increase their influence in politics, they must first become equal with men. Until then, they will be viewed as inferior; therefore, not requiring influence in politics. Gradually women are gaining more power, and prestige in society. Soon, the number in high-paying jobs will increase, creating a less economically dependent gender. As women strive for these changes, men, especially politicians, will be forced to take notice. As power for women intensifies, so will their influence in politics. As the voice for womens rights grows, so will their equality; therefore, leveling out the playing field in the political arena for both men, and women. Society needs to realize that this is the dawn of a new century and the role of the female should indeed be reevaluated. Women are equal to men, and should have the same opportunities as men. Women follow rules and are fair too. Women can cooperate with the government. Women can make good choices, and effective speeches. Most people say, Well what about their kids? Think about it. Men are responsible for their kids just as much as women are. A woman wont run president if she has 3 year olds and needs to stay with them. Shell run when she gets older because her kids will be older. I hope people will change their minds and give them a chance, because theyre there to do their jobs. I hope that one day I can live to see a woman president.

Hope From a King Essays -- Personal Narrative

Hope From a King â€Å"Darkness cannot drive out the darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.† This quote from a long and memorable list of Dr. Martin Luther King quotes offers some much needed solace, and hope in today’s troubled world. The darkness that Dr. King refers to can symbolize many things today and the hate he mentions is as strong today as it was four decades ago; only we are dealing with a different kind of hate. In today’s world, darkness is apparent every corner you turn, with the daily atrocities being committed in southern Sudan and the ongoing conflict in Iraq serving as prime examples. Over 30 countries are actively engaged in civil war, and there is the constant threat of another and more deadly terrorist attack anywhere in the world. When Dr. King said light can drive out darkness, he was referring to solving crisis in a diplomatic manner. Dr. King preached, and practiced nonviolence during the civil rights movement because he believed in the power of people to make a difference more than he did in the power of arm...

Ted Kaczynski, the UNABOMBER - An Ethical Case Study Essay -- Philosop

Ted Kaczynski, the UNABOMBER - An Ethical Case Study The intent of this study is to determine exactly how much responsibility Ted Kaczynski must accept for his actions as the UNABOMBER. The essential problem of the situation is that Kaczynski claims complete responsibility, but he has been ruled mentally ill by the State. He adamantly denies his illness, stating that social maladjustment, although technically a sickness, is distinct from an organic based illness, and therefore within his realm of free will. We will also address the role his brother and sister-in-law played in the tragedy, their motives, and the impact their pleas have brought to bear on the dilemma. We will examine this ethology from an existentialist perspective, as this is the most applicable to Ted Kaczynski himself. Case Summary During an 18-year period as the UNABOMBER, Ted Kaczynski wounded 23 people and killed 3 with pipe bombs. He is a vehement anarchist and Luddite who feels that oversocialization and technology are destroying Man and strangling out any kind of Freedom he may have ever possessed. According to section 114 of his manifesto, "The system HAS TO regulate human behavior closely in order to function†¦. Bureaucracies HAVE TO be run according to rigid rules†¦. It is true that some restrictions on our freedom could be eliminated, but GENERALLY SPEAKING the regulation of our lives by large organizations is necessary for the functioning of industrial-technological society. The result is a sense of powerlessness on the part of the average person. It may be, however, that formal regulations will tend increasingly to be replaced by psychological tools that make us want to do what the system requires of us." Evidenc... ... Conclusions Existentially, David has made the dominant decision in the end, and the truly free decision. Ted, as do most ‘martyrs’ (which is how he views himself) has chosen to sacrifice his freedom by not ending his own life. Right to die? He has it every day when he looks around him. If he leaves his right to die in someone else’s hands, he accepts no responsibility and therefore does not truly exist as a free individual, and therefore does not have a right to die. The strengths of this model are that there is an intrinsic master and slave: this is also the weakness, because Ted denied the existence of the master in that all men were there own masters. Unlike Ted, who claims to accept responsibility but actually denied it by denying the inequality of existence, his brother did accept the responsibility by choosing to exist in dominance.

Simul8 in Supply Chain

[pic] PLYMOUTH BUSINESS SCHOOL COURSEWORK COVERSHEET GROUP WORK NAMES and NUMBERS of students in the group (2 Students): 1. El-Iraki, Youssef (10448517) 2. Badr, Noureldin (10445226) MODULE CODE: MBM5204 MODULE NAME: Logistics, Supply Chains, Systems and Methods Lecturer: Professor Dongping Song DEADLINE : 11th February 2013 WORD COUNT: 1,657 By submitting this piece of assessment the group confirms that all the work is thoroughly and adequately acknowledge and referenced, and has been completed in accordance with the University and Programme Regulations.Table of Contents 1. 0 Introduction3 2. 0 Current Simulation Model3 2. 1 Clock Options3 2. 2 The warm-up period3 2. 3 Results collection period4 2. 4 The number of trials used4 2. 5 Results analysis4 3. 0Pooling Resources5 3. 1 The impact of pooling resources5 3. 2 Comparison between initial model and pooled model6 4. 0Usefulness of Simulation Model in Business Context6 4. 1 Simulation and decision making6 4. 2 Researcher Recommendat ion8 5. 0 Bibliography9 6. 0 Appendices:11 1. 0 IntroductionSimulation is one of the three quantitative analysis solutions and it is essential in logistics decision making (Ghiani, et al. , 2004). Simulation model can answer what if questions in existing system as for this case, the business needs to know and evaluate performance if two warehouses and four drivers can be pooled to compare the results and the influence of the supply chain performance, in order to give an optimal supply-production-distribution system decisions. The researchers used SIMUL8 program to run the simulations and draw the predictable models needed. . 0 Current Simulation Model 2. 1 Clock Options The business is working daily from Monday till Friday by which the shifts are starting from 9:00 till 17:00 (8 hours/day), and the time is set up in hours to monitor the start time and the length of each day. 2. 2 The warm-up period The warm-up period is crucial when building up simulation for manufacturing models, b ecause there is no work-in-progress in such industries at the beginning of the process (Concannon et al. , 2007).Robinson (2007) stated that there are various methods to determine warm-up period in the simulation model such as the model of run-in for a warm-up period until it reaches a steady state and then the data are deleted and the model of a realistic initial condition at the start of the run. The first model was taking into consideration when determining the warm-up period and has shown that the warm-up period is 280 hours. It is worth adding a 20% to the normal warm-up period as a safety margin (SIMUL8, 2013).The table below shows the exact warm-up period after running and monitoring the simulation model. Figure (1): Warm-up period [pic] 2. 3 Results collection period The result collection period is usually chosen to reflect an appropriate operating period. In this model the period set to 1600 hours = 40 weeks. The researchers decided to choose 40 weeks as statistically n ? 3 0, it is important to use large sample size to be more accurate and it is necessary to produce results among variables that are totally different (Freeman, et al. , 2010). 2. 4 The number of trials usedAfter running the simulation model, it was important to generate the results required to help the company analyse the output data accurately. The more trials used, the more accurate the results will be. Approximately 3000 trials for both initial and pooling models are conducted to give sufficient accurate results needed for the company. 2. 5 Results analysis Appendix (2) illustrates the results that conducted after running the simulation of model 1. The average time in system is 110 hours due to many reasons in the supply chain which affects production plan that lead to poor delivery performance.Although the main objective of any manufacturer is to decrease lead-time in order to satisfy customer and achieve better delivery performance. Driver’s performances are 91% and they are considered as an important resource to deliver finished goods to end customers at the right time. The waiting percentage of the available vehicles is set to be 2% which cannot be considered as a factor that hinder the efficiency of customer delivery. However, the working percentage of vehicles can be enormous factor that affect customer delivery.As shown in appendix (2), vehicles are only operating at a 79% of its total working ability. Since the warehouses hold finished goods and is considered to be an inventory, therefore it is crucial to minimise the capacity of the warehouses to achieve greater financial success. Appendix (2) shows that the average queue size of both warehouses is nearly 16 units whereas the maximum capacity of the warehouses is 50 units, thus the capacity of the warehouses are efficiently used. Average queue time of the available warehouses is another factor that must be taken in the prior considerations.An average of 34 hours is spent to deliver orders from w arehouses to customers and this can be nearly 30% of the whole time spent in system. The rule of thumb declares that once the goods are manufactured, it must be delivered as quickly as possible to reduce storage costs and to satisfy customers. Pooling Resources 3. 1 The impact of pooling resources Pooling resources is a possible method to improve service performance without adding any other resources. Pooling help to reduce the variability of data collection, however pooling of customers adds variability to the system and no efficiency will be gained (Vanberkel et al. 2010). Furthermore, it helps to reduce the average queue time in system for the products; it is optimal to schedule the shortest job first and to give priority to short jobs (Downey, n. d. ). Thus, it can reduce inventory holding period and costs. This method used in the model is called FIFO (first-in first-out). 3. 2 Comparison between initial model and pooled model 1- There are dramatic changes after pooling warehous es, the queuing time dropped from 34 hours to 15 hours while queue size decreased from16 units to 15 units.As a result the average time in system declined from 110 hours to 88 hours, thus it can lead to better customer service, saving storage costs and save time as well. 2- After pooling the drivers, it has influenced the waiting times of the vehicles to increase slightly from 2% to 2. 4%. While driver’s utilisation has improved significantly to rise from 91% to 93%, therefore drivers after pooling can respond quickly and flexibly to customers. Usefulness of Simulation Model in Business Context 4. 1 Simulation and decision makingThe simulation model can help the real-world companies to provide efficient production and distribution systems as stated by Tunali et al. (2011). SIMUL8 has become the preferred tool as it brings solutions for production planning and scheduling to thousands of engineers that have complex supply chains and distribution systems such as Chrysler, GM, Fo rd etc. (SIMUL8, 2013). SIMUL8 is easy to use and support numerous critical decisions making every year because it enables to create accurate and flexible output more rapidly.Moreover, it helps bridging the ERP gap by creating new and feasible production plans (Concannon et al. , 2003). Analysis and assessment of business processes; development of what if scenarios and export to implementation platforms, such as workflow management and ERP systems are the key advantages of simulation modelling, because it enables the integration of these functions easily and more accurately (Verma et al. , n. d. ). As a result, decision making can be easily overtaken and this is the reason why thousands of companies use simulation modelling to optimise their supply-production-distribution systems.Chrysler saved $5 Million by using Simul8 software which helped them to identify the best performance and bottleneck lines, thus it assisted them to slow it down. Simul8 also reduced the manpower on these a ssembly lines which have saved $ 600,000 per year as labour costs. On the other hand, the researchers could not identify the best performance and bottleneck lines because it needs Simul8 professional software which is used in real world companies and the need of historical data is crucial to be more realistic when identifying the bottlenecks in the supply-production-distribution systems (Simul8, 2013).The researchers used Simul8 education software in this case and they found out after pooling warehouses and drivers, significant results are achieved such as reducing inventory (from 16. 7 units to 15. 5 units) and the time of finished goods spent in the warehouse was also decreased significantly (34. 5 hours to 15. 9 hours). As a result, the lead-time dropped from 110 hours to 88 hours. Furthermore, driver’s utilisation increased from 91. 1% to 93. 6% after pooling the resources (drivers).Thus, the business could react more responsively to customers and achieve enormous financi al success because of their drivers’ flexibility (Velverde et al. , 2000). According to McLean and Leong, simulation models can help manufacturing and operational departments to determine which new technologies need to be used, organise labour shifts and materials management required for each production stage and modelling of supplier relationships (McLean and Leong, 2001). Table (1): Usefulness of Simulation Model Usefulness of the Simulation Model | |Business Context |Current Simulation Model | |Support the operation of supply chain through â€Å"what-if† |A trial of approximately 3,000 runs were conducted to compare the available | |manufacturing model |results | |Perform capacity planning analysis |Available capacities for warehouses in the initial model were set to 50 each, but | | |it was planned to pool both warehouses together to have a capacity of 100 which | | |delivers enormous results.Maximum batches for trucks and availability% of drivers| | |were set which helped for planning the distribution process of the model | |Establish the required resources for production and material |Determine and manage the required raw materials needed for assembling the product | |handling |(How many raw materials needed from each supplier) it can also be set on which | | |statistical distribution used to supply these values materials as the simulation | | |runs | |Ability to evaluate overall firm performance |Every stage of the production and distribution process are evaluated such as | | |working%, waiting%, utilisation of drivers, queue sizes, queue times, etc. As a | | |result, this can elp evaluate the performance of the company and assist the top | | |management in taking the right decisions | 4. 2 Researcher Recommendation By using SIMUL8, the researcher suggested to add value to the company even after pooling their resources which affected in significant results. The researches created new model and recommended to add one more vehicle with the same amount of resources that are available (drivers, warehouses) to compare with the previous results. The following table shows even more effective results as customers received their orders in less than the time spent by using only 2 vehicles.It has also shown that driver’s utilisation increased significantly from 93. 2% to 97. 9% and this is due to a huge reduction in waiting times of drivers. Finally, warehouses queue size and queuing time have decreased to meet nearly the maximum efficiency by which slight amount inventory holding and very tiny amount of time is spent inside the warehouse where most of the finished goods are ready for delivery to customers once arrived. Table (2): Results of adding extra vehicle [pic] 5. 0 Bibliography †¢ Concannon, K. Elder, M. Hindle, K. Tremble, J. and Tse, S. (2007) Simulation Modeling with simul8. [online] Available at: < http://www. visual8. om/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/simulation_modeling_with_simul8_web. pdf > [Accesse d on 26th of January 2013]. †¢ Concannon, K. H. , Hunter, K. I. & Tremble, J. M. (2003) SIMUL8-Planner: Simulation-Based Planning and Scheduling. [online] Available at: < http://ieeexplore. ieee. org/stamp/stamp. jsp? arnumber=01261593 > [Accessed on 28th of January 2013]. †¢ Downey, A. B. (n. d. ) Using queue time predictions for processor Allocation. [online] Available at: < http://www. cs. huji. ac. il/~feit/parsched/jsspp97/p-97-2. pdf> [Accessed on 27th January 2013]. †¢ Freeman, J. , Shoesmith, E. , Anderson, D. R. , Sweeney, D. J. & Williams, T. A. (2010) Statistics for business and economics. 2nd ed.Hampshire: South-Western Cengage learning. †¢ Ghiani, G. , Laporte, G. and Musmanno, R. (2004) Introduction to logistics systems planning and control. Chichester: Wiley. †¢ McLean, C. and Leong, S. (2001) The Role of Simulation in Strategic Manufacturing. [online] Available at: < http://citeseerx. ist. psu. edu/messages/downloadsexceeded. html > [Accessed on 30th of January 2013]. †¢ Robinson, S. (2007) A statistical process control approach to selecting a warm-up period for a discrete-event simulation. European Journal of Operational Research [online], 176 (1). Available at: < http://ac. els-cdn. com/S0377221705005643/1-s2. 0-S0377221705005643-main. pdf? tid=65d0a6b8-6edb-11e2-94b5-00000aacb35e&acdnat=1359990116_8f49ecb58acc4020e744141def925d90 > [Accessed on 26th of January 2013]. †¢ Simul8 (2013) Warm-up Time. [online] Available at: < http://www. simul8. com/support/help/doku. php? id=gettingstarted:techguide:warmup&do=show > [Accessed on 26th of January 2013]. †¢ Simul8. (2013) Chrysler projected to save $5 million using SIMUL8. [online] Available at: < http://www. simul8. com/our_customers/case_studies/chrysler_line_balancing. htm > [Accessed on 28th of January 2013]. †¢ Tunali, S. , Ozfirat, P. M. & Ay G. (2011) Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory. Setting order promising times in a supply chain networ k using hybrid simulation-analytical approach: An industrial case study. 9, (9), p. p 1967 – 1982. [online] Available at: < http://ac. els-cdn. com/S1569190X11000888/1-s2. 0-S1569190X11000888-main. pdf? _tid=9efcdf7a-6a48-11e2-a658-00000aab0f01&acdnat=1359487271_e121e9fba1ca576f0e980d12317a80a9 > [Accessed on 29th of January 2013]. †¢ Valverde M. , Tregaskis O. & Brewster C. (2000) International Advances in Economic Research. Labor Flexibility and Firm performance. 6, (4), pp. 649-661 [online]. Available at: < http://link. springer. com. up3xt5ae3w. useaccesscontrol. com/article/10. 1007/BF02295375 > [Accessed on 31st of January]. †¢ Vanberkel, P. T. Boucherie, R. J. Hans, E. W. Hurink, J. L. & Litvak, N. 2010) Efficiency evaluation for pooling resources in health care. OR Spectrum [online], 34 (1), pp. 371-390. Available at: < http://doc. utwente. nl/67543/1/memo1902. pdf > [Accessed on 27th of January 2013]. †¢ Verma, R. , Sharma, A. & Gupta, A. (n. d. ) Role of Simulation Modeling in Business Process Re-engineering. [online] Available at: < http://simvehic. com/admin/rpapers/Role%20of%20Simulation%20Modeling%20in%20Business%20Process%20Reengineering. pdf > [Accessed on 28th of January 2013]. 6. 0 Appendices: Appendix (1): Initial Simulation Model [pic] Appendix (2): Initial results [pic] Appendix (3): Pooled Simulation Model [pic] Appendix (4): Pooling Results [pic]

Saving the Mentally Ill: Ethical Judicial Reform

The plights of the mentally ill have been seen across various cultures throughout the historical tale of humanity. The imposed consequences of society on individuals demonstrating deviant behavior, often considered to be mentally ill, range from punishments as light as a ticket or fine and ranging to incarceration or even execution. The question remains for society today, are extreme punishments such as incarceration or execution rational solutions in regard to the treatment of mentally ill people who break the social norms of safety? Figuring out how best to deal with the fringes of society often called criminals but better termed mentally ill people is question which has no doubt been with humanity for a very long time. However, it is a justified opinion to state that mentally ill people are indeed worthy of better treatment than incarceration or execution. Despite the sometimes harmful behaviors of mentally ill individuals, there are better actions to take in the bettering of human society than to punish the most tormented and fragile members of society. A very important positive aspect of allowing mentally ill offenders to engage in the care of psychological treatment rather than being locked into the government judicial system and jails is simply being able to look at an offender with compassion and the hope of recuperation rather than with scorn and the desire to maltreat the offender. Jailing and execution, even minor fines, is simply an evil act in response to an evil act. The basic lesson that two wrongs don’t make a right is an ethical foundation that most people learn in their toddler years—to treat a neighbor as one would like to be treated. In punishing the mental ill, sometimes to the extreme of murdering them through execution, humanity only demonstrates a desire for revenge and a lack of patience. Although some states, for example Virginia, bar the execution of the mentally retarded, there is still widespread resistance to barring the execution of the mentally ill, and currently only Connecticut prohibits this act of injustice (Slobogin). Clearly, there is still widespread resistance to both understanding the sick actions of individuals as well as working cooperatively to try to aid these poor people. One has to wonder where the line is drawn between the mentally retarded, the mentally ill, and the insane, and what these terms mean in regard to aiming to define civil justice. Although some states have prohibited the execution of mentally retarded people, the Supreme Court has barred the execution of insane persons, but not of mentally retarded persons (Miller). In psychological diagnoses of mental illnesses, there is no concrete wall drawn between the mentally retarded and the mentally ill, and the term insanity is not even used professionally. Although psychosis may be what the courts refer to in regard to insanity, there is still no hard and fast line drawn between people exhibiting psychosis and those exhibiting neurosis. These people are all considered to be mentally ill. However, in considering the idea of just punishments for any individual, healthy or ill, it is important to not the hypocrisy and paradox involved even in the term just punishment. Is there ever a good maltreatment or a necessary evil? A rational person would have to say no. Forgiveness, understanding, and comprehensive rehabilitative treatment are necessary for all offenders. Society should offer this to the offenders precisely as an example of what it means to not offend, an extension of humane wisdom and goodwill. In viewing the experiences of the mentally ill individuals who are incarcerated, it is disquieting to note the extreme punishment received in modern jail settings. As if being forced to live in a tightly enclosed and barred setting for multiple year or even lifelong sentences were not enough of a crime against humanity, many mentally ill individuals who are incarcerated or on death row experience further injustice in jails by the high rate of occurrence of injury and death, the inappropriate use of force by personnel, and the release of mentally ill people from jail who have received little to no psychological treatment (Erickson & Erickson). On a smaller and perhaps more easily identifiable scale, it’s like experiencing a puppy who chews furniture and deciding to kick the dog or put the dog in a cage rather than allowing the puppy the natural environment of a caring owner with a yard or countryside for free roaming. The offender may need to be enclosed in a safe area, but the treatment administered to the offender for humane recuperation would not be physical torture or a tiny cell, it would be person centered health care in an environment tailored to meet the sensitive needs of the sick individual, helping them wholeheartedly on the short or long path to better living. In regard to changing the way courts view mentally ill people when they commit offenses against humanity, it is important to note not only the voices of judges, psychologists, and lawyers in their aim to provide the best situation for the offender, but to value the wishes of the offenders themselves. Luckily there is an increasing interest in mentally ill people as well as their clinicians to choose their own health care plans and service providers. By viewing mentally ill offenders as needing social help rather than punishment, society can also offer these individuals choices in the steps toward their recuperation. In allowing for a mediation process by which the offender and societal representative, such as a government counselor, social worker, psychologist, or psychiatrist, can come to an agreement about the terms by which the mentally ill individual will engage in a process of ongoing health care, the court system may be able to reduce the need for more formal and expensive court process and reduce the costs associated with involuntary care (Fleischner). It is also valid to consider the desires of the offender who wishes to be released without care. In truly believing that two wrongs don’t make a right, it may be prudent to invest consideration in the option of allowing for the immediate release of offenders who wish to be freed without treatment. Although this action may endanger society, it very well may not. The power of forgiveness is highly underestimated in many cases. In aiming to administer justice, society has to consider what is just in every case, not only in some. If murder is wrong, then murder is wrong, not only in the case of the victim being murdered, but also in the case of the offender being murdered. If enclosing a person in a tight dark box is wrong for a parent to do to a child day after day, then it is also wrong for the government to do this to social offenders. Anyone any person commits a crime against humanity, then the person committing the crime is sick, mentally ill and not thinking or behaving logically. When viewing the ill actions of offenders in a judicial process, one must also honestly view the ill actions of the judiciary. So many crimes are committed by the mentally ill, and many of the mentally ill people are not the ones receiving the sentence, but people who are ordering the sentences or standing on the sidelines in support in injustice. Only when humanity opens its heart to all people in forgiveness and a sincere attempt to right wrongs will humanity be clean and delivered from her sins. No person deserved to be tightly jailed, left without health treatment, or cast out of society by even harsher means such as death. Ostracizing the weakest and most needy members of society only results in a crumbling of true ethics and suffering in hypocrisy. Democracy is empty without ethics, and arbitrating law means nothing when the law is empty of morality and goodwill.

Tracking the U.S Economy

This will be followed by a personal economic outlook or the remainder of 2014. Current State of U. S Economy: A. Gross Domestic Product (GAP) According to the figures illustrated in the above graph prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (SEA), an agency of the Commerce Department, U. S. Real gross domestic product contracted sharply at an annual rate of 1. 0 percent in IQ 2014 compared to 2. 6 percent in the previous quarter. This marked the first decline in economic growth since January 2011, a period of three years.The drop in GAP growth comes as a revision, down from the BEAK'S original estimate released last April which showed an increase of 0. 1 percent. The BEA announces early estimates based on incomplete and partial data to provide a general picture of economic activity. These estimates are usually revised, with a second and third estimate being released as more data is acquired. The third and last revision for IQ 2014 is due to be released on June 25th and it remains to be seen how the GAP numbers will be affected. So why did the numbers decline so drastically?Many economists blame the anemic growth due to diminished business inventories, and the abnormally, harsh winter the country experienced during the beginning of the year, however, not everyone agrees. Forbes quotes Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITS Investment Research who states, â€Å"Looking through the rest of the report, we see the cold hand of winter, although I am not sure to what extent the cold in the Midwest caused the level of exports to drop by $40. 5 billion while imports only dropped $8. 8 billion. Surely the supply chains weren't frozen in only one direction. Despite the historically, cold weather, there is more to the unexpected, weak performance of the battered U. S economy. Numerous components of the GAP played a hand in causing the decline in economic growth, including a decrease in exports, lack of business investments and decreased government spending. Reduction in rea l exports (real imports, which are a subtracted in the GAP calculation declined as well), accounted for a significant portion of the economic decline, followed by a decrease in inventory investments, non residential fixed investments, residential investments and a cutback in state and local government spending.The GAP ‘s only supporter so far this year came in the form of increased real personal consumer expenditures, which grew from 2. 1 percent from the previous estimate of 2. 0 percent, mainly reflecting sharp increases in services and light increases in other areas. The BEA states, â€Å"The downturn in the percent change in real GAP, primarily reflected a downturn in exports, a larger decrease in private inventory investment, and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in federal government spending† (2014).The table below, prepared by the BEA, shows precisely which components of G AP rose and tumbled in IQ 2014. B. Foreign Trade (Exports & Imports) According to records maintained by the U. S Census Bureau and the BEA, exports in April of $193. 3 billion and imports of $240. Billion resulted in a trade deficit of $47. 2 billion, up from $44. 2 billion in March. The April exports were $0. 3 billion less than March exports of $193. 7 billion, but imports were $2. 7 billion more than March imports of $237. 8 billion. The chart produced by the BEA below displays the U. S. International trade in goods and services in a period of two years, from April 2012 to April 2014. Goods deficit in April increased by $3. 3 billion from March to $65. 8 billion and services surplus increased by $0. 2 billion from March to $18. 6 billion. Exports of goods decreased $0. 6 billion to $135. Billion, but imports however increased by $2. 7 billion to $200. 9 billion. Services exports increased by $0. 3 billion to $58. 2 billion and imports followed suit increasing by $0. 1 billion to $39. 7 billion. From April 2013 to April 2014, the goods and services deficit has increased by $6. Billion. Imports in that time period were up by 5. 4 percent or, $12. 4 billion and exports were up by 3. 0 percent, or $5. 6 billion. C. Gross Private Domestic Investments (Business Investment) Gross private domestic investment is a vital component of GAP because it gives us an idea of future productive capacity. It accounts for approximately 14 percent of our GAP and is considered to be the least stable component. The BEA defines gross private domestic investment as private fixed investment and change in private inventories.It is measured without a deduction for consumption of fixed capital and includes replacements and addition to the capital stock, but excludes investment by U. S. Residents in other countries, hence the domestic. The BEA divides business investments into to sub-categories, fixed nonresidential investment, residential investment and business inventories. In short, g ross private domestic investment is n aggregate component of expenditures and includes fixed investments (nonresidential and residential) and change in private inventories.In the above graph from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLESS), the analysis depicts gross private domestic investment data with future projections as far as 2022. The growth rate for the time period of 2002 to 2012 is 0. 6 percent, with negative annual growth rates for all categories of fixed residential structures. However, the annual growth rate in business inventories in this same time period increased from the last decade from -3. 3 percent to 12. 9 percent. They project business inventories to increase by 2022 at an average annual rate of 0. 6 percent. D. Consumer Spending The Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in May.The index is currently at 83. 0, up from 81. 7 Just last month in April. The BEA recently reported that consumer spending increased to 10914. 40 billion in IQ 2014, up from 10831. 50 billion in Q 2013. U. S. Consumer spending fell for the first time in a year in April 2014 after two months of solid gains, but the decline is probably interim in nature given the strengthening numbers in the Job market. The drop followed a revised 1. Percent increase in March that was the largest gain since August 2009. Real disposable personal income (DIP) remained steady throughout IQ 2014 with a slight decreases in both April and May.E. Unemployment Rate As reported by the Bull's latest economic news release, total nonfat payroll employment increased by 217,000 in May. The increase was due largely to professional and business services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, transportation and warehousing and temporary services. Employment in other sectors such as manufacturing, mining and logging, construction, wholesale ND retail trade, information and financial services, and government remained steady. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6. 3 perce nt. In May, following a decline of 0. 4 percent in April.The number of unemployed persons remained the same in May at 9. 8 million, a decrease of 1. 9 million over the last year. Over the previous year, nonfat payroll employment averaged approximately 197,000 a month. The long term unemployed numbers remained steady at 3. 4 million and accounted for 34. 6 percent of the unemployed. That number has declined by almost a million workers, as the economy continues to gradually recover ND improve. The graph below by the BEA shows the inclines and declines of the unemployment rate since 1990. Updated unemployment figures and charts for June 2014 will be released on July 3, 2014. F.Inflation Rate (ICP) The most recent release by the BLESS states that the ICP for all urban consumers (ICP-U) increased by 0. 3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the past year, the all items index increased by 2. 0 percent before seasonal adjustment. Gasoline, shelter, and food indexes all ros e in April and so did all items less food and energy. The consumer price index for May will be released on June 17, 2014. G. Government Spending: Fiscal and Monetary Policies According to the data reported by the BEA, current government expenditures exceeded receipts and caused a net government saving of -966. Billion during first quarter of 2014; an increase from Q 2013. Net lending or net borrowing which is an alternative measure of the government fiscal position was -1036. 5 billion, increasing from -968. 7 Q 2013. U. S. Economic Outlook: Remainder 2014 Coming off the harshest winter we've experienced in quite some time, the economy is expected to rebound and continue improving its upward growth in the remainder of 2014. The economy is expected to expand 2. 4 percent with the recovery of the housing market and business investments. Government consumption is expected to slow economic growth this year for the fourth straight year in a row.Consumer spending will remain in the 2 perc ent range, but it's possible that it might increase due to the increase in disposable personal income. This is assuming consumer confidence increases as the year passes. Employment is expected to continue its growth of 180,000-190,000 Jobs gained monthly similar to the previous two years. Structural unemployment will continue to be an issue as most Jobs created will be in he food service and retail industries. Small businesses are expected to gain confidence and provide support to the economic growth in 2014 with a key source of funding that's been missing since the recession; home equity.The increase in home values over the previous year and the ongoing housing recovery is expected to support small businesses. The recovering housing market will play a role in GAP growth as home values continue to rise fueling construction activity leading to an accelerated pace in residential investment. Accelerated business investment will gain approximately 2. 5 percent to around 4. Percent in th e following quarters; driven by hefty gains in nonresidential structures and slight increases in equipment and software expenditures. Growing demand for industrial space will support the increase in business investments.Inflation will rise modestly from the lows of 2013 but will remain humble. Consumer prices will rise as producer prices rise due to global and domestic demand. Net exports will play a leading role and is expected to add to the overall GAP growth. Economists predict a 6. 6 percent rate of growth, along with the support of the oil boom to increase the pace of export activity. U. S. Economic Personal Outlook: 2014 From the extensive research I've done on this topic, my personal outlook on the economy for 2014 in one word, subpart. I expect GAP to grow slightly over the year due to more than one component.Consumer spending is a strong candidate to increase most simply because disposable income is increasing. I understand that we just recently went through a recession and money conservation would be wise, but we're a consumer nation and a consumer based culture, therefore I expect personal consumer expenditures to rise. The winter that affected the nation during the ginning of the year slowed growth but in March, when the weather started to lift consumer expenditures skyrocketed. Personally, it would seem as if consumer confidence is on the rise and the data supports my theory.I believe the increasing home values will embolden consumers and business owners alike and add to economic growth, with businesses leading the way. I feel as if consumers aren't ready to make such a big financial commitment such as a mortgage and the ones willing to take risks will be the entrepreneurs or the business owners, so I expect to see growth in business investments. Residential investments will continue to improve as confidence is restored in the housing market allowing consumers to purchase rental properties to supplement or increase their income.Non residential inv estments will increase as well as values rise due to demand but I'm not quite sure how strong this demand will be. Being the consumer culture we are, I expect us to import more than we export like we have for over a two decades now, however, the strengthening oil and gas sector in the country will gain momentum, gradually relieving us of our oil dependency on OPEC nations in the years to come, decreasing our imports of foreign oil. Economic growth in 2014 may be slow, but it's much better compared to where we were as a nation a couple of years ago.

Forward the Foundation Chapter 12

13 Up and down. Up and down. Up and down. Gleb Andorin watched Gambol Deen Namarti trudging up and down. Namarti was obviously unable to sit still under the driving force of the violence of his passion. Andorin thought: He's not the brightest man in the Empire or even in the movement, not the shrewdest, certainly not the most capable of rational thought. He has to be held back constantly-but he's driven as none of the rest of us are. We would give up, let go, but he won't. Push, pull, prod, kick. Well, maybe we need someone like that. We must have someone like that or nothing will ever happen. Namarti stopped, as though he felt Andorin's eyes boring into his back. He turned around and said, â€Å"If you're going to lecture me again on Kaspalov, don't bother.† Andorin shrugged lightly. â€Å"Why bother lecturing you? The deed is done. The harm-if any-has been done.† â€Å"What harm, Andorin? What harm? If I had not done it, then we would have been harmed. The man was on the edge of being a traitor. Within a month, he would have gone running â€Å" â€Å"I know. I was there. I heard what he said.† â€Å"Then you understand there was no choice. No choice. You don't think I liked to have an old comrade killed, do you? I had no choice.† â€Å"Very well. You had no choice.† Namarti resumed his tramping, then turned again. â€Å"Andorin, do you believe in gods?† Andorin stared, â€Å"In what?† â€Å"In gods.† â€Å"I never heard the word. What is it?† Namarti said, â€Å"It's not Galactic Standard. Supernatural influences. How's that?† â€Å"Oh, supernatural influences. Why didn't you say so? No, I don't believe in that sort of thing. By definition, something is supernatural if it exists outside the laws of nature and nothing exists outside the laws of nature. Are you turning into a mystic?† Andorin asked it as though he were joking, but his eyes narrowed with sudden concern. Namarti stared him down. Those blazing eyes of his could stare anyone down. â€Å"Don't be a fool. I've been reading about it. Trillions of people believe in supernatural influences.† â€Å"I know,† said Andorin. â€Å"They always have.† â€Å"They've done so since before the beginning of history. The word ‘gods' is of unknown origin. It is, apparently, a hangover from some primeval language of which no trace any longer exists, except that word. Do you know how many different varieties of beliefs there are in various kinds of gods?† â€Å"Approximately as many as the varieties of fools among the Galactic population, I should say.† Namarti ignored that. â€Å"Some people think the word dates back to the time when all humanity existed on but a single world.† â€Å"Itself a mythological concept. That's just as lunatic as the notion of supernatural influences. There never was one original human world.† â€Å"There would have to be, Andorin,† said Namarti, annoyed. â€Å"Human beings can't have evolved on different worlds and ended as a single species.† â€Å"Even so, there's no effective human world. It can't be located, it can't he defined, so it can't be spoken of sensibly, so it effectively doesn't exist.† â€Å"These gods,† said Namarti, continuing to follow his own line of thought, â€Å"are supposed to protect humanity and keep it safe or at least to care for those portions of humanity that know how to make use of the gods. At a time when there was only one human world, it makes sense to suppose they would be particularly interested in caring for that one tiny world with a few people. They would care for such a world as though they were big brothers-or parents.† â€Å"Very nice of them. I'd like to see them try to handle the entire Empire.† â€Å"What if they could? What if they were infinite?† â€Å"What if the Sun were frozen? What's the use of ‘what if?† â€Å"I'm just speculating. Just thinking. Haven't you ever let your mind wander freely? Do you always keep everything on a leash?† â€Å"I should imagine that's the safest way, keeping it on a leash. What does your wandering mind tell you, Chief?† Namarti's eyes flashed at the other, as though he suspected sarcasm, but Andorin's face remained good-natured and blank. Namarti said, â€Å"What my mind is telling me is this-If there are gods, they must be on our side.† â€Å"Wonderful-if true. Where's the evidence?† â€Å"Evidence? Without the gods, it would just be a coincidence, I suppose, but a very useful one.† Suddenly Namarti yawned and sat down, looking exhausted. Good, thought Andorin. His galloping mind has finally wound itself down and he may talk sense now. â€Å"This matter of internal breakdown of the infrastructure-† said Namarti, his voice distinctly lower. Andorin interrupted. â€Å"You know, Chief, Kaspalov was not entirely wrong about this. The longer we keep it up, the greater the chance that Imperial forces will discover the cause. The whole program must, sooner or later, explode in our faces.† â€Å"Not yet. So far, everything is exploding in the Imperial face. The unrest on Trantor is something I can feel.† He raised his hands, rubbing his fingers together. â€Å"I can feel it. And we are almost through. We are ready for the next step.† Andorin smiled humorlessly. â€Å"I'm not asking for details, Chief. Kaspalov did and look where that got him. I am not Kaspalov.† â€Å"It's precisely because you're not Kaspalov that I can tell you. And because I know something now I didn't then.† â€Å"I presume,† said Andorin, only half-believing what he was saying, â€Å"that you intend a strike on the Imperial Palace grounds.† Namarti looked up. â€Å"Of course. What else is there to do? The problem, however, is how to penetrate the grounds effectively. I have my sources of information there, but they are only spies. I'll need men of action on the spot.† â€Å"To get men of action into the most heavily guarded region in all the galaxy will not be easy.† â€Å"Of course not. That's what has been giving me an unbearable headache till now-and then the gods intervened.† Andorin said gently (it was taking all his self-restraint to keep from showing his disgust), â€Å"I don't think we need a metaphysical discussion. What has happened-leaving the gods to one side?† â€Å"My information is that His Gracious and Ever to Be Beloved Emperor Cleon I has decided to appoint a new Chief Gardener. This is the first new appointee in nearly a quarter of a century.† â€Å"And if so?† â€Å"Do you see no significance?† Andorin thought for a moment. â€Å"I am not a favorite of your gods. I don't see any significance.† â€Å"If you have a new Chief Gardener, Andorin, the situation is the same as having a new administrator of any other type-the same as if you had a new First Minister or a new Emperor. The new Chief Gardener will certainly want his own staff. He will force into retirement what he considers dead wood and will hire younger gardeners by the hundreds.† â€Å"That's possible.† â€Å"It's more than possible. It's certain. Exactly that happened when the present Chief Gardener was appointed and the same when his predecessor was appointed and so on. Hundreds of strangers from the Outer Worlds-â€Å" â€Å"Why from the Outer Worlds?† â€Å"Use your brains-if you have any, Andorin. What do Trantorians know about gardening when they've lived under domes all their lives, tending potted plants, zoos, and carefully arranged crops of grains and fruit trees? What do they know about life in the wild?† â€Å"Ahhh. Now I understand.† â€Å"So there will be these strangers flooding the grounds. They will be carefully checked, I presume, but they won't be as tightly screened as they would be if they were Trantorians. And that means, surely, that we should be able to supply just a few of our own people, with false identifications, and get them inside. Even if some are screened out, a few might make it-a few must make it. Our people will enter, despite the supertight security established since the failed coup in the early days of First Minister Seldon.† (He virtually spat out the name, as he always did.) â€Å"We'll finally have our chance.† Now it was Andorin who felt dizzy, as if he'd fallen into a spinning vortex. â€Å"It seems odd for me to say so, Chief, but there is something to this ‘gods' business after all, because I have been waiting to tell you something that I now see fits in perfectly.† Namarti stared at the other suspiciously and looked around the room, as though he suddenly feared for security. But such fear was groundless. The room was located deep in an old-fashioned residential complex and was well shielded. No one could overhear and no one, even with detailed directions, could find it easily-nor get through the layers of protection provided by loyal members of the organization. Namarti said, â€Å"What are you talking about?† â€Å"I've found a man for you. A young man-very naive. A quite likable fellow, the kind you feel you can trust as soon as you see him. He's got an open face, wide-open eyes; he's lived in Dahl; he's an enthusiast for equality; he thinks Joranum was the greatest thing since Dahlite cokeicers; and I'm sure we can easily talk him into doing anything for the cause.† â€Å"For the cause?† said Namarti, whose suspicions were not in the least alleviated. â€Å"Is he one of us?† â€Å"Actually, he's not one of anything. He's got some vague notions in his head that Joranum wanted sector equality.† â€Å"That was his lure. Sure.† â€Å"It's ours, too, but the kid believes it. He talks about equality and popular participation in government. He even mentioned democracy.† Namarti snickered. â€Å"In twenty thousand years, democracy has never been used for very long without falling apart.† â€Å"Yes, but that's not our concern. It's what drives the young man and I tell you, Chief, I knew we had our tool just about the moment I saw him, but I didn't know how we could possibly use him. Now I know. We can get him onto the Imperial Palace grounds as a gardener.† â€Å"How? Does he know anything about gardening?† â€Å"No. I'm sure he doesn't. He's never worked at anything but unskilled labor. He's operating a hauler right now and I think that he had to be taught how to do that. Still, if we can get him in as a gardener's helper, if he just knows how to hold a pair of shears, then we've got it.† â€Å"Got what?† â€Å"Got someone who can approach anyone we wish-and do so without raising the flutter of a suspicion-and get close enough to strike. I'm telling you he simply exudes a kind of honorable stupidity, a kind of foolish virtue that inspires confidence.† â€Å"And he'll do what we tell him to do?† â€Å"Absolutely.† â€Å"How did you meet this person?† â€Å"It wasn't I. It was Manella who really spotted him.† â€Å"Who?† â€Å"Manella. Manella Dubanqua.† â€Å"Oh. That friend of yours.† Namarti's face twisted into a look of prissy disapproval. â€Å"She's the friend of many people,† said Andorin tolerantly. â€Å"That's one of the things that makes her so useful. She can weigh a man quickly and with very little to go on. She talked to this fellow because she was attracted to him at sight-and I assure you that Manella is not one who is usually attracted by anything but the bottom line-so, you see, this man is rather unusual. She talked to this fellow-his name is Planchet, by the way-and then told me, ‘I have a live one for you, Gleb.' I'll trust her on the matter of live ones any day of the week.† Namarti said slyly, â€Å"And what do you think this wonderful tool of yours would do once he had the run of the grounds, eh, Andorin?† Andorin took a deep breath. â€Å"What else? If we do everything right, he will dispose of our dear Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, for us.† Namarti's face blazed into anger. â€Å"What? Are you mad? Why should we want to kill Cleon? He's our hold on the government. He's the facade behind which we can rule. He's our passport to legitimacy. Where are your brains? We need him as a figurehead. He won't interfere with us and we'll be stronger for his existence.† Andorin's fair face turned blotchy red and his good humor finally exploded. â€Å"What do you have in mind, then? What are you planning? I'm getting tired of always having to second-guess.† Namarti raised his hand. â€Å"All right. All right. Calm down. I meant no harm. But think a bit, will you? Who destroyed Joranum? Who destroyed our hopes ten years ago? It was that mathematician. And it is he who rules the Empire now with his idiotic talk about psychohistory. Cleon is nothing. It is Hari Seldon we must destroy. It is Hari Seldon whom I've been turning into an object of ridicule with these constant breakdowns. The miseries they entail are placed at his doorstep. It is all being interpreted as his inefficiency, his incapacity.† There was a trace of spittle in the corners of Namarti's mouth. â€Å"When he's cut down, there will be a cheer from the Empire that will drown out every holovision report for hours. It won't even matter if they know who did it.† He raised his hand and let it drop, as if he were plunging a knife into someone's heart. â€Å"We will be looked upon as heroes of the Empire, as saviors. Eh? Eh? Do you think your youngster can cut down Hari Seldon?† Andorin had recovered his sense of equanimity-at least outwardly. â€Å"I'm sure he would,† he said with forced lightness. â€Å"For Cleon, he might have some respect; the Emperor has a mystical aura about him, as you know.† (He stressed the â€Å"you† faintly and Namarti scowled.) â€Å"He would have no such feelings about Seldon.† Inwardly, however, Andorin was furious. This was not what he wanted. He was being betrayed. 14 Manella brushed the hair out of her eyes and smiled up at Raych. â€Å"I told you it wouldn't cost you any credits.† Raych blinked and scratched at his bare shoulder. â€Å"But are you going to ask me for some now?† She shrugged and smiled rather impishly. â€Å"Why should I?† â€Å"Why shouldn't you?† â€Å"Because I'm allowed to take my own pleasure sometimes.† â€Å"With me?† â€Å"There's no one else here.† There was a long pause and then Manella said soothingly, â€Å"Besides, you don't have that many credits anyway. How's the job?† Raych said, â€Å"Ain't much but better than nothing. Lots better. Did you tell that guy to get me one?† Manella shook her head slowly. â€Å"You mean Gleb Andorin? I didn't tell him to do anything. I just said he might be interested in you.† â€Å"Is he going to be annoyed because you and I-â€Å" â€Å"Why should he? None of his business. And none of yours, either.† â€Å"What's he do? I mean, what does he work at?† â€Å"I don't think he works at anything. He's rich. He's a relative of the old Mayors.† â€Å"Of Wye?† â€Å"Right. He doesn't like the Imperial government. None of those old Mayor people do. He says Cleon should-â€Å" She stopped suddenly and said, â€Å"I'm talking too much. Don't you go repeating anything I say.† â€Å"Me? I ain't heard you say nothing at all. And I ain't going to.† â€Å"All right.† â€Å"But what about Andorin? Is he high up in Joranumite business? Is he an important guy there?† â€Å"I wouldn't know.† â€Å"Don't he ever talk about that kind of stuff?† â€Å"Not to me.† â€Å"Oh,† said Raych, trying not to sound annoyed. Manella looked at him shrewdly. â€Å"Why are you so interested?† â€Å"I want to get in with them. I figure I'll get higher up that way. Better job. More credits. You know.† â€Å"Maybe Andorin will help you. He likes you. I know that much.† â€Å"Could you make him like me more?† â€Å"I can try. I don't know why he shouldn't. I like you. I like you more than I like him.† â€Å"Thank you, Manella. I like you, too. A lot.† He ran his hand down the side of her body and wished ardently that he could concentrate more on her and less on his assignment. 15 â€Å"Gleb Andorin,† said Hari Seldon wearily, rubbing his eyes. â€Å"And who is he?† asked Dors Venabili, her mood as cold as it had teen every day since Raych had left. â€Å"Until a few days ago I never heard of him,† said Seldon. â€Å"That's the trouble with trying to run a world of forty billion people. You never hear of anyone, except for the few who obtrude themselves on your notice. With all the computerized information in the world, Trantor remains a planet of anonymities. We can drag up people with their reference numbers and their statistics, but whom do we drag up? Add twenty-five million Outer Worlds and the wonder is that the Galactic Empire has remained a working phenomenon for all these millennia. Frankly I think it has existed only because it very largely runs itself. And now it is finally running down.† â€Å"So much for philosophizing, Hari,† said Dors. â€Å"Who is this Andorin?† â€Å"Someone I admit I ought to have known about. I managed to cajole the security establishment into calling up some files on him. He's a member of the Wyan Mayoralty family-the most prominent member, in fact-so the security people have kept tabs on him. They think he has ambitions but is too much of a playboy to do anything about them.† â€Å"And is he involved with the Joranumites?† Seldon made an uncertain gesture. â€Å"I'm under the impression that the security establishment knows nothing about the Joranumites. That may mean that the Joranumites no longer exist or that, if they do, they are of no importance. It may also mean that the security establishment just isn't interested. Nor is there any way in which I can force it to be interested. I'm only thankful the officers give me any information at all. And I am the First Minister.† â€Å"Is it possible that you're not a very good First Minister?† said Dors, dryly. â€Å"That's more than possible. It's probably been generations since there's been an appointee less suited to the job than myself. But that has nothing to do with the security establishment. It's a totally independent arm of the government. I doubt that Cleon himself knows much about it, though, in theory, the security officers are supposed to report to him through their director. Believe me, if we only knew more about the security establishment, we'd be trying to stick its actions into our psychohistorical equations, such as they are.† â€Å"Are the security officers on our side, at least?† â€Å"I believe so, but I can't swear to it.† â€Å"And why are you interested in this what's-his-name?† â€Å"Gleb Andorin. Because I received a roundabout message from Raych.† Dors's eyes flashed. â€Å"Why didn't you tell me? Is he all right?† â€Å"As far as I know, but I hope he doesn't try any further messages. If he's caught communicating, he won't be all right. In any case, he has made contact with Andorin.† â€Å"And the Joranumites, too?† â€Å"I don't think so. It would sound unlikely, for the connection is not something that would make sense. The Joranumite movement is predominantly lower-class-a proletarian movement, so to speak. And Andorin is an aristocrat of aristocrats. What would he be doing with the Joranumites?† â€Å"If he's of the Wyan Mayoralty family, he might aspire to the Imperial throne, might he not?† â€Å"They've been aspiring for generations. You remember Rashelle, I trust. She was Andorin's aunt.† â€Å"Then he might be using the Joranumites as a stepping-stone, don't you think?† â€Å"If they exist. And if they do-and if a stepping-stone is what Andorin wants-I think he'd find himself playing a dangerous game. The Joranumites-if they exist-would have their own plans and a man like Andorin may find he's simply riding a greti-â€Å" â€Å"What's a greti?† â€Å"Some extinct animal of a ferocious type, I think. It's just a proverbial phrase back on Helicon. If you ride a greti, you find you can't get off, for then it will eat you.† Seldon paused. â€Å"One more thing. Raych seems to be involved with a woman who knows Andorin and through whom, he thinks, he may get important information. I'm telling you this now so that you won't accuse me afterward of keeping anything from you.† Dors frowned. â€Å"A woman?† â€Å"One, I gather, who knows a great many men who will talk to her unwisely, sometimes, under intimate circumstances.† â€Å"One of those.† Her frown deepened. â€Å"I don't like the thought of Raych-â€Å" â€Å"Come, come. Raych is thirty years old and undoubtedly has much experience. You can leave this woman-or any woman, I think-safely to Raych's good sense.† He turned toward Dors with a look so worn, so weary, and said, â€Å"Do you think I like this? Do you think I like any of this?† And Dors could find nothing to say.